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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.

One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.

Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”

Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.

Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.

“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.

Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.

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What struck Scott Bennett most were the razor clams.

The long saltwater clams, resembling old-fashioned razors, normally burrow into sand to avoid predators. But when Bennett, an ecologist, visited South Australia’s Great Southern Reef last month, he saw thousands of them rotting on the sea floor.
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“100% of them were dead and wasting away on the bottom,” Bennett told CNN.

Since March, a harmful algal bloom, fueled by a marine heat wave, has been choking South Australia’s coastline, turning once-colorful ecosystems filled with thriving marine life into underwater graveyards.

The bloom has killed about 15,000 animals from over 450 species, according to observations on the citizen science site iNaturalist. They include longfinned worm eels, surf crabs, warty prowfish, leafy seadragons, hairy mussels and common bottlenose dolphins.
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The algae have poisoned more than 4,500 square kilometers (1,737 square miles) of the state’s waters – an area larger than Rhode Island – littering beaches with carcasses and ravaging an area known for its diversity.

It’s “one of the worst marine disasters in living memory,” according to a report by the Biodiversity Council, an independent expert group founded by 11 Australian universities.

The toxic algal bloom has devastated South Australia’s fishing industry and repelled beachgoers, serving as a stark warning of what happens when climate change goes unchecked.

Once a bloom begins, there is no way of stopping it.

“This shouldn’t be treated as an isolated event,” Bennett said. “This is symptomatic of climate driven impacts that we’re seeing across Australia due to climate change.”